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Citrus Bowl Prediction

Will No. 13 Alabama take out some 2019 season frustrations out on No. 14 Michigan when the two meet up today at 1PM ET in the VRBO Citrus Bowl?

Game Snapshot & Odds

VRBO Citrus Bowl

Michigan Vs Alabama Odds

263 Michigan vs. 264 Alabama

Wednesday, January 1, 2020

1PM ET – Camping World Stadium

TV: ABC

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Public Betting Trends

According to the latest oddsmakers, Alabama is favored in this game, as the Crimson Tide are getting odds of -7.5 points against Michigan. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 58.5 points The public betting currently has 84 percent going on Alabama as the favorite. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.

Alabama misses out on playoffs

Alabama had a down year by its standards, suffering a pair of losses to LSU and Auburn this season. However, the two losses were by a combined eight points. Bama is 10-2 on the season, 6-6 against the spread and 7-5 with the over.

The Crimson Tide are one of the most explosive offenses in the nation. Bama is averaging 48.3 points and 513.5 yards per game. Defensively, Alabama hasn’t been as dominant as usual, but still allows just 18.8 points and 318.8 yards per game. The Tide lost Tua Tagovailoa to a hip injury. He had thrown for 2,840 yards and 33 touchdowns this year. Mac Joneshas proven to be a capable fill-in. He has thrown for 1,176 yards and 11 touchdowns in his place. DeVonta Smith is the team’s leading receiver with 65 catches for 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns, while Najee Harris is the top rusher with 1,088 yards and 11 scores. Anfernee Jennings is leading the defense with 73 tackles and 7.5 sacks.

Wolverines coming off lopsided loss

Alabama

Michigan had built some momentum toward the end of the 2019 season, but the Wolverines were still dominated by Ohio State at home, 56-27. Michigan is 9-3 on the season, 7-5 against the spread and 9-3 with the over.

The Wolverines have been a solid defense this season, allowing just 19.5 points and 293.9 yards per game. Josh Uche is leading the defense with 34 tackles and 8.5 sacks. Offensively, Michigan is putting up 33.0 points and 402.7 yards per contest. Shea Pattersonhas led U-M this season by throwing for 2,828 yards and 22 touchdowns. Nico Collins is his top receiver. He caught 33 passes for 681 yards and seven touchdowns. Zach Charbonnet is the top rusher with 642 yards and 11 touchdowns.

College Football Betting Trends

Alabama

The Tide are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven against a winning team, but 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against Big Ten opponents.

Michigan

The Wolverines are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home and 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.

Prediction:

Alabama is a team that gave LSU its toughest game and also narrowly lost to a pretty good Auburn team. The Tide are now some pushover team that should be overlooked. Michigan had a good second half of the season, but then completely looked overwhelmed against Ohio State. I think Alabama has similar talents to Ohio State in terms of athleticism and explosiveness. Jones should be just fine under center and the Alabama offense is still capable of stopping the Michigan offense. Michigan has come out flat in recent bowl games and I could see that happening again today. Alabama will punch them early and I don’t think the Wolverines will respond.

Citrus Bowl Prediction: Alabama -7.5

Odds

The Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) look to end their season on a high note when they meet the Michigan Wolverines (9-3) in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando at 1 p.m. ET New Year’s Day (on ABC). We analyze the Alabama-Michigan odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Alabama vs. Michigan: Three things you need to know

1. Both teams have been solid on hitting the Over. Michigan is 9-3 O/U on the season, while Alabama is 7-5 despite some incredibly high O/U lines where the Crimson Tide had to supply most of the points.

2. Alabama is 6-1 both on the moneyline and against the spread in its last seven meetings with Big Ten schools.

3. When the Wolverines are expected to lose, they do so with alarming frequency. Michigan has lost its last 16 games against the moneyline when playing as an underdog.

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Michigan Football Odds Vs Alabama

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Alabama vs. Michigan: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 8:40 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Alabama 42, Michigan 27

Moneyline (ML)

Mich Vs Alabama Spread

Alabama (-250) is a prohibitive favorite despite a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball. But, Michigan (+200) has a history of coming up short against elite opponents – HC Jim Harbaugh has yet to post a win against Ohio State in his tenure at Michigan. The 2:1 return is tempting, but the Wolverines are going to need too many things to go right for them and wrong for ‘Bama. If you must make a bet here, take insurance with Alabama, but I suggest PASSING and focusing on the spread and Over/Under.

Against the Spread (ATS)

This one has been over 7 points, but, currently BetMGM has Alabama a 6.5-point favorite (-125) over Michigan (+105). As would be expected, the payback is better for Michigan, but that’s because the sportsbooks want more action going the Wolverines’ way. I wouldn’t have been shocked to see the spread closer to 10 than less than seven, so this one screams, “TAKE ALABAMA!” because the game comes down to the wire close. Alabama could struggle and still hit the spread at the end.

Over/Under (O/U)

The O/U is high at 57.5 points (-115 Over, -106 Under), but history is on the side of the Over. In its last eight games against SEC schools, Michigan has hit the Over. ‘Bama has a penchant for getting in high-scoring games against good teams – its losses were 46-41 to LSU and 48-45 to Auburn. Michigan’s offense grew increasingly better from what it showed in September. All that needs to happen for the Over to hit is that one team gets up double digits in the first half, preferably the first quarter. Then it’s on. It could set a tone that should leave 57.5 points in the rear-view mirror midway through the fourth. Take the OVER.

Michigan Vs Alabama Money Line

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Michigan Vs Michigan State Odds

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